Nelly's Greensheet
<HR style="COLOR: #a8a8a8" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->RATING 5 NEBRASKA (-16) over Colorado
RATING 4 WEST VIRGINIA (-3) over Pittsburgh
RATING 3 FRESNO STATE (+19½) over Boise State
RATING 2 MISSISSIPPI (-13) over Mississippi State
RATING 2 HOUSTON (-3) over Rice
RATING 1 UTEP (+5½) over East Carolina
RATING 1 OKLAHOMA STATE (+7½) over Oklahoma
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 25, 2008
BALL STATE (-10) Western Michigan 6:00 PM
Even though Ball State has dominated the MAC this season and sits
at 11-0, the Cardinals must win this game to play for the conference
championship. Western Michigan has just one conference loss and
the Broncos have an impressive resume including a win over Illinois
this season. Neither defense has been dominant this season in
terms of yardage but Ball State has great scoring numbers and also
a more balanced offensive attack. Last season Ball State beat
Western Michigan 27-23 in a game where turnovers played a big
role. Ball State was actually significantly out-gained last week and a
similar style of passing offense could again put up big numbers
against the Cardinals. Western Michigan has not played a true road
game since mid-October so Ball State can survive. BALL ST BY 7
NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-3) Navy 6:00 PM
Northern Illinois delivered a big road win last week to reach bowl
eligibility but the Huskies might want to bolster the resume and get
to 7-5 and enhance the bowl chances. This has been the least
impressive Navy squad in recent years but given the coaching
change and key injuries the Midshipmen have had a solid season.
Navy is 0-2 ATS against the MAC this season and Northern Illinois
has featured the best statistical defense in the conference this
season. This could be a tough sandwich game for Navy having
played a tight game with Notre Dame in the last contest and facing
the rivalry finale against Army next week. Navy beat Northern Illinois
35-24 last season but the tables could turn this year. NIU BY 10
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 27, 2008
TEXAS (-34) Texas A&M 7:00 PM
The Longhorns will need to make its case in the media polls but the
reality is they probably need two major upsets to have a chance at
the Big 12 title game or the BCS title game. The Longhorns still
could manage a BCS spot but very little is under its own control
other than this final game. Texas A&M has covered in three straight
games against Texas, including upset wins each of the past two
years. It has been a tough year for the Aggies but this would be an
opportunity for a redeeming victory. With a defense that allows over
455 yards per game and an offense that lacks a reliable running
game it is tough to expect the Aggies to keep up in this match-up.
Texas has been vulnerable against strong passing teams ranking
110th nationally in passing yards allowed and A&M can have a
productive air attack to find the end zone. TEXAS BY 21
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 28, 2008
West Virginia (-3) PITTSBURGH 11:00 AM
Pittsburgh did not help out West Virginia last week and Cincinnati is
in a great position for the Big East title but this will still be a huge
rivalry game to close out the year. West Virginia was bound for the
BCS title game last season before Pittsburgh won 13-9 in
Morgantown late last year as a nearly 30-point underdog. West
Virginia has had great success in this series in the past decade and
statistically the Mountaineers have major edges on both sides of the
ball. West Virginia had a lot of help with turnovers last week but the
offense is starting to play like the team many expected to see early
in the year, scoring an average of 31.75 points the last four games.
Pittsburgh needed to win last week and came up just short, look for
a letdown, even in a rivalry game. WEST VIRGINIA BY 14
MIAMI, OH (-1) Ohio 11:30 AM
Miami has lost four consecutive games and has just one FBS win on
the season despite relatively high expectations to start the year.
Ohio delivered a big win last week over Akron and the Bobcats have
been very competitive this year despite a poor record. Ohio had just
199 yards of offense in this match-up last season but won 38-29
with special teams and the defense making big plays. Turnovers
have been a huge problem for both teams this year with two of the
worst margins in the nation on the season. Although Miami has
shown little fight in recent weeks this could be a more favorable
situation for the season finale. Ohio allowed 42 points while being
out-gained last week and still ended up with a win. MIAMI BY 3
MISSISSIPPI (-13) Mississippi State 11:30 AM
Last week’s win over LSU was huge for Ole Miss and the Egg Bowl
game will be a tough follow-up. Mississippi blew a 14-0 lead last
season to lose and the home team has won S/U each of the last four
years. Mississippi State came up with a great performance last week
for its most complete offensive game of the season. Playing on the
road has been a challenge for the Bulldogs with a 0-5 S/U record
and only one cover on the year. Mississippi has been the
dramatically superior team on both sides of the ball and the Rebels
should be pull away with a big victory margin. A letdown after the
LSU game won’t happen in a rivalry game. OLE MISS BY 24
TEMPLE (-2½) Akron 12:00 PM
Akron has seen its bowl hopes slipping away with losses the last two
weeks. The Zips could still get to six wins this week but it may not be
enough to get a bowl bid this season. The Temple defense had
good numbers early in the year but the Owls have allowed an
average of 42 points per game the last three games. Akron has
been no better on defense, allowing at least 30 points in five straight
games. Special teams have been strong area for Temple and the
record at home has been favorable but recent struggling against two
of the worst teams in the MAC is a concern. The Owls may have a
similar game to last week with a narrow win but difficulty getting
stops to pull away in the match-up. TEMPLE BY 3
EAST CAROLINA (-5½) Utep 12:00 PM
The Miners lost a tight game last week but at 5-6 bowl eligibility is
still a possibility. Last season these teams went to overtime with
East Carolina winning by three in a game that UTEP posted nearly
600 yards. Last week’s narrow win for East Carolina clinched the CUSA
East division title so there is much less on the line for the
Pirates in this game. UTEP has a great record as an underdog in
recent years and the Miners are on a 3-game ATS winning streak.
East Carolina is 1-8 ATS in the last nine games, still overvalued
from the great start to the year. East Carolina has not topped 20
points in four straight games and the Pirates will have a hard time
keeping up with UTEP’s offense. UTEP BY 4
Central Michigan (-10½) EASTERN MICHIGAN 11:00 AM
The Chippewas significantly out-gained undefeated Ball State last
week but it was not enough to pull out the upset. Central will get a
bowl invite this season but it is a bit of a disappointment after backto-
back conference titles. Despite vastly different results from these
two programs in recent years this series has been incredibly close.
Each of the last four games has been decided by seven points or
less with three of those games going to overtime. Last year Eastern
Michigan gave Central its only division loss but given the
circumstances this figures to be another close game as the rivalry
means much more to the underdog Eagles. Eastern Michigan has
covered in two of the last three games and can score. CM BY 7
BUFFALO (-10) Kent State 1:00 PM
The Bulls locked up a spot in the conference championship game
with a comeback win last week and the Bulls have delivered a very
successful season for a program that was recently among the worst
in the nation. Buffalo beat Kent late last season in overtime and after
the Flashes failed last week in its final home game it is hard to
envision a great effort from either team this week. Kent has been a
horrible ATS team in recent years with bad numbers on the road
while Buffalo is 8-3 ATS on the season. The productive running
game for Kent gives the Flashes potential and last week’s ugly loss
was filled with turnovers. Turnovers have been a big part of the
success for Buffalo however. BUFFALO BY 13
Lsu (-5) ARKANSAS @Little Rock 1:30 PM
After skating by in close games against mediocre teams and getting
whipped by the elite teams LSU found its palce as an emerging
Mississippi team delivered a big win last week in Baton Rouge. The
Tigers barely eclipsed 200 yards in the game, and the defense
continues to allow a lot points. Arkansas failed to cover in a narrow
loss last week, missing ATS for the first time since early October.
Last season Arkansas beat LSU in what was assum ed to be a
crippling second loss late in the season but the Tigers still wound up
in the BCS title game. Arkansas has become a very different team
since that triple OT win and last week’s loss sealed any hopes of
reaching bowl eligibility. LSU could bounce back as last week’s ugly
loss came on the heels of a miraculous comeback win. LSU has
struggled against the spread at home in recent years but the Tigers
are 16-7-1 ATS on the road since ’03. LSU BY 10
TOLEDO (NL) Bowling Green 2:30 PM
Bowling Green los t a big lead last week and with it went division title
hopes and possibly bowl hopes. Depending how everything unfolds
in other conferences there may not be room in the postseason for
the Falcons even if they reach 6-6 with a win this week. Toledo has
covered in three of the last four games and the historical home field
edge in this stadium has been incredible. These teams are nearly
identical statistically in terms of yardage gained and allowed but
Bowling Green has produced better numbers in terms of scoring this
season. Toledo lost 37-10 last season so this could be a big
revenge game to close the season at home. The Rockets have
covered in nearly 65 percent of home games since coming on the
betting board back in 1998. TOLEDO BY 3
NEBRASKA (-16) Colorado 2:30 PM
Last season Colorado won 65-51 in Boulder to clinch a bowl spot
and the situation is similar this year as the Buffaloes are sitting at 5-
6 and in need of one more win. Nebraska has won four of the past
five games and is averaging 35 points per game. In great contrast,
Colorado’s offense has really struggled to score, averaging less than
20 points per game. Colorado has covered in just one of the last
eight games including going 0-4 in road games. Given a revenge
game for the final game in a tough home venue Nebraska can carry
some momentum into the bowl season. Nebraska’s defense has
ugly numbers but Colorado has actually allowed even more yardage
per game this season. Colorado has had recent success in this
series but this situation favors the Hus kers. NEBRASKA BY 27
BOISE STATE (-19½) Fresno State 5:00 PM
This could be a difficult spot for Boise State. Last week’s road game
at Nevada was hyped as the toughest remaining spot on the
schedule for the undefeated Broncos and despite four turnovers the
Broncos survived. Fresno State is a talented team that has
underperformed most of the season but is capable of rising up for a
game of this magnitude. Boise State also saw Utah clinch an
undefeated season and spoil any hopes of the Broncos making it to
a BCS bowl last week so this could be a flat spot. Boise State has
clinched the WAC title and although playing for an undefeated
season is a motivator this could be a challenging game. Fresno’s
defense has played well the last two weeks allowing just 27 points
and the Bulldogs might have one good game left in them. Boise
State has had great success in this series but Fresno State was a
winner the last time it played on this field, taking the ’07
Humanitarian Bowl. BOISE STATE BY 10
ARIZONA STATE (-10) Ucla 8:30 PM
Last season Arizona State delivered a late defensive stand to hold
on for the win against UCLA and this could be another competitive
game. ASU had very high expectations to start the season but it has
been a horribly disappointing year although a bowl is still a
possibility with two more wins. Arizona State has won back-to-back
games but those wins came against two of the worst teams in the
nation, Washington and Washington State. UCLA also could still
reach six wins but it is an extreme long shot with next week’s game
against USC. UCLA’s offense has not been productive this season
but the pass defense has been very good, an important factor
against an Arizona State team that struggles to run the ball. Arizona
State has lost outright in three out of four home games this season
and UCLA has won five of the past seven in this series. UCLA BY 3
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 29, 2008
Miami, FL (-1) NC STATE 11:00 AM
The five game Hurricane winning streak was snapped in brutal
fashion last week as Miami allowed over 500 yards in a primetime
loss. NC State delivered one of the more shocking results last week
winning 41-10 as a 6-0 turnover margin helped the cause. NC State
has now won three consecutive games and with a victory this week
the Wolfpack will reach 6-6 and a bowl game, an incredible feat
considering the 2-6 start to the year. Miami’s defense has posted
significantly superior numbers and after last week’s disaster the
defense should be motivated for a much better effort this week. NC
State won 19-16 late last season at the Orange Bowl in overtime
and this is a revenge game for the Canes. Miami is still alive in the
ACC Coastal chase so this is a critical game. MIAMI BY 7
WAKE FOREST (-3½) Vanderbilt 6:00 PM
The Demon Deacons appeared to have sealed up a narrow win last
week before a final drive led to a narrow BC victory and knocked
Wake Forest out of the division race. Both of these teams are bowl
eligible at 6-5 but the second half of the year has been much worse
than the first half for both teams. Both teams have impressive
numbers on defense this season, averaging fewer than 320 yards
per game allowed. The Commodores lost at home last week but on
the year Vanderbilt is 4-1 ATS on the road while Wake Forest
continues to struggle in the favorite role. Wake Forest has been the
more productive offensive team but the Deacons have been
handicapped by the injury to kicker Swank as last week’s result
would have been different with more confidence in the kicking game.
Vanderbilt averages just 20 points per game but should be able to
bounce back catching Wake of a tough loss. VANDERBILT BY 4
BOSTON COLLEGE (-6½) Maryland 2:30 PM
Boston College found a way to win last week and the Eagles control
their own destiny, having already defeated Florida State and facing
the other Atlantic contender this week. Maryland endured a
disastrous game last week with four turnovers and a quick early
deficit that could not be recovered from. Maryland has not been a
strong performer on the road but the Terps have also not lost backto-
back games all season. BC QB Crane was injured last week and
is not expected to play this week so the Eagles could have a tough
game against a Maryland defense that has been better than the
numbers indicate. Maryland beat Boston College last season when
the Eagles were a top ten ranked team and Boston College can be
carried by its defense for a critical win that would clinch a spot in the
ACC championship game next week. BC BY 10
VIRGINIA TECH (-8½) Virginia 11:00 AM
The Hokies have covered in seven of the las t nine in this series but
both offenses have had a tough time scoring points in recent games.
Virginia Tech is just 2-4 ATS in the last six games and the Hokies
have failed to top 23 points in five straight games. Virginia
meanwhile is averaging just over 16 points per game on the season.
After a four game win streak mid-season Virginia has now lost three
straight games and the Cavaliers need to win this game to become
bowl eligible. Virginia Tech is still in the hunt for the ACC Coastal
title needing a win and a Miami loss to lock it up. Virginia has played
one of the toughest schedules in the nation and the last three losses
have all been close games. Virginia Tech won unimpressively last
week in a game that featured nine total turnovers and this is a game
that the Cavaliers will rise up for. VIRGINIA BY 3
North Carolina (-8½) DUKE 2:30 PM
Despite being down their staring QB and RB Duke played close with
Virginia Tech last week but the offense only managed 136 yards.
North Carolina suffered six turnovers in a lopsided loss and the Tar
Heels have knocked themselves out of the ACC championship
picture. North Carolina has been an up and down team and despite
having the opposite record of Duke at 7-4, the Tar Heels hold only a
very slight yards per game average on offense and Duke’s defense
has actually allowed fewer yards on the season. This rivalry game
has favored Duke against the spread in recent years but the Blue
Devils have also been a terrible home underdog. Last season UNC
needed OT to knock off Duke and this game has been decided by
six or fewer points each of the last three years. Duke will make this
game interesting but likely falls just short yet again. UNC BY 7
CINCINNATI (-22) Syracuse 11:00 AM
The Bearcats have a great final game to clinch the Big East title and
the BCS spot but recall that West Virginia failed in a very similar
spot last year as a 29-point favorite. Syracuse has had a rough year
but they own wins over two respectable teams Louisville and Notre
Dame. Syracuse has played through the toughest schedule of any
Big East team. The statistics are overwhelming in Cincinnati’s favor
but the Bearcats own few blowouts, scoring 28 or fewer in each of
the last six games. Although Cincinnati is 9-2 they are out-gaining
foes by just 50 yards per game and own five wins by eight points or
fewer. Cincinnati’s defense has earned praise but in four of the last
five games opponents have scored at least 20 points. This will be
the third road game in four weeks for the Orange coming off a huge
win and Cincinnati capitalizes on mistakes. CINCINNATI BY 27
TEXAS TECH (-20) Baylor 2:30 PM
The Red Raiders ended the perfect run last week and surrendered
hopes of a BCS championship, a Big 12 championship, and a Big 12
South championship. Texas Tech gave up over 600 yards and the
great offense could get nothing going until the game was well out of
reach. The emotional toll after such a loss will be tough to bounce
back from. Baylor has been a greatly improved team and the Bears
will have had two weeks to prepare for this game. Baylor is 8-2 ATS
in the last ten games as the Bears have been very competitive this
year. The Bears rush for 192 yards per game with a dangerous
mobile QB but the Baylor defense will likely have problems in this
match-up. Although Texas Tech has significant edges in this matchup
this is a tough situation to play well in. TEXAS TECH BY 17
MEMPHIS (-13) Tulane 1:00 PM
The Tigers allowed less than 200 yards last week while posting solid
offensive numbers but still managed to lose. Memphis is not yet
bowl eligible so this is a critical game for the Tigers . Tulane has now
lost seven straight and the defense was torn up last week for nearly
600 yards, mostly on the ground. The Wave has been out-scored by
a nearly 3-to-1 margin in the last seven games, allowing an average
of over 40 points per game. Memphis needs to win this game and
Tulane has shown no signs of life since injuries have crippled the
team. Memphis won by just a single point last season but that has
not been the norm in this series. MEMPHIS BY 24
Nevada (-3½) LOUISIANA TECH 1:30 PM
Although Nevada has received a bit more attention, Louisiana Tech
quietly has posted the superior record at 7-4. The Bulldogs have
won several close games this season but at 5-2 in the WAC
Louisiana Tech has to be taken seriously. Nevada rushes for over
300 yards per game but Louisiana Tech is also capable of posting
huge numbers on the ground. Louisiana Tech has much better
scoring and yardage numbers on defense although Nevada has
played a tougher schedule. Nevada played close with Boise State
last week but the Wolfpack had a 4-0 turnover edge that kept them
in the game as they were badly out-gained. It will be tough for
Nevada to bounce back after the big game. LA TECH BY 10
Houston (-3) RICE 2:30 PM
Houston has won three consecutive games and having already
defeated Tulsa, the Cougars can clinch the C-USA West by
knocking off Rice, who is also 6-1 in conference play. Rice has won
five straight games and the Owls are 13-5 ATS in the last 18 home
games. Houston has won the last four meetings but the last two
have been incredibly close. Both defenses allow over 400 yards per
game but Houston’s offensive production has been at another level
of late, averaging 569 yards per game on the year. This rivalry game
could be close between nearby schools but Rice has not defeated a
team with a winning record all season long. HOUSTON BY 14
UTAH STATE (-6) New Mexico State 2:00 PM
Utah State has covered in three of the last four games despite only
two outright wins all season. New Mexico State has lost six in a row
but they have played competitive games the last two weeks against
teams with winning records. New Mexico State owns an explosive
passing offense but the NMS Aggies also allow big numbers this
year. Utah State has been a much more competitive team at home
and USU Aggies are rested coming off a bye week. Utah State beat
New Mexico State as underdogs last season and own success in
this long running series. UTAH STATE BY 9
Southern Mississippi (-13½) SMU 2:00 PM
The Golden Eagles need one more win to reach bowl eligibility and
riding a three game win streak Southern Miss has some momentum.
SMU has not won since early September but there have been
several competitive efforts mixed in. SMU has some of the worst
defensive numbers in the nation and Southern Miss is a highly
productive offensive team, particularly in the last month. The Golden
Eagles have had strong success as a road favorite with a 13-4
record in the last 17 attempts. SMU has played one of toughest
schedules of any C-USA team but the Mustangs have allowed at
least 31 points in every game this season while scoring that many
only three times. Southern Miss has allowed just 23 total points on
the three game win streak and as long as the bye week did not take
away the momentum another win is there. SO MISS BY 21
Missouri (-13) Kansas @Kansas City, MO 11:30 AM
This was a huge game last season that Missouri won yet it was
Kansas that earned a BCS bowl spot. Missouri has not lived up to
expectations this season but at 9-2 the Tigers can still make a BCS
bowl trip by winning the Big 12 title game next week, back in Kansas
City. The Missouri defense has struggled this season but the offense
can put up huge numbers. Kansas has played a tougher schedule
this year and the Jayhawks are allowing over 28 points per game
with terrible numbers against the pass so this will be a tough matchup.
This is a bitter rivalry that does not always get national publicity
but there is really nothing on the line for either team as Missouri has
clinched the North title and Kansas is bowl eligible. This is typically
not a close series and even though Missouri won last season the
Tigers will be motivated by the bowl snub. MISSOURI BY 21
Oklahoma (-7½) OKLAHOMA STATE 7:00 PM
The BCS championship talk has already begun and the debate
between Texas and Oklahoma will rage on but the bottom line is that
if Oklahoma wins this week they will likely move ahead of Texas in
the BCS rankings and represent the Big 12 South in the title game.
A loss here obviously changes things and Oklahoma needs Texas
Tech to beat Baylor to create the three-way tie. Winning this game is
far from a given however. Oklahoma State is 9-2 and the Cowboys
have covered in nine of the last 13 meetings. Oklahoma State’s
offense is nearly as productive as Oklahoma’s and the Oklahoma
defense that dominated last week has not played that way most of
the season. While Oklahoma was winning the huge game last week
the Cowboys were on an off week, getting extra preparation in for
this game. Given the media attention and extra distractions with the
high ranking this will be a very tough spot for the Sooners and a
Oklahoma State win would not be a surprise. OSU BY 3
GEORGIA (-8) Georgia Tech 11:00 AM
The Bulldogs have won the last seven meetings but this is a very
different Georgia Tech team this season. The Bulldogs have had
more time to prepare for this game but Georgia Tech impressively
dominated Miami last week and the Yellow Jackets could be default
division title winners in the ACC depending on this week’s other
ACC games. Georgia is 1-6 ATS in the last seven games and the
Bulldogs have not played well in the favorite role this year. Georgia
Tech owns superior defensive numbers this season and the ACC
has outranked the SEC in terms of overall quality this season.
Georgia lost badly to the best two teams in the SEC and Georgia
Tech is a difficult team to prepare for as well as a difficult team to
beat by a significant margin. GEORGIA BY 7
Tulsa (-14) MARSHALL 2:30 PM
The Golden Hurricane bounced back last week after two losses to
deliver a convincing win last week with huge rushing numbers.
Marshall has played well in the home underdog role but the Herd
has had a tough time scoring points this season, averaging less than
20 per game. Tulsa still owns the most productive offense in the
country although the numbers have slipped in recent weeks. Tulsa’s
defense is vulnerable but it is hard to expect Marshall to take
advantage unless turnovers are a big factor. Marshall owns wins
over three of the better offenses in the conference this season
beating Memphis, Southern Miss, and Houston so the Herd is
capable of delivering a great game against a good team. Tulsa can
win the C-USA West title with a Rice victory over Houston so there
will be no letting up from the Hurricane. TULSA BY 23
ALABAMA (-14½) Auburn 2:30 PM
Although Alabama is the top ranked team in the nation and a heavy
favorite here, Auburn has won six in a row in the Iron Bowl. Each of
the last six meetings has been decided by ten points or less and the
Tigers especially need to win this season as they are not yet bowl
eligible. Auburn’s defense is allowing just 16 points per game and
the talent on defense can keep the Tigers in the game. Mistakes on
offense have been a big problem and Alabama has been productive
but not a dominant offensive team. Alabama has horrible numbers
as a home favorite in recent years, going 4-18 ATS in the last 22 at
home although winning and covering in the last two. All the pressure
is on Alabama in this game and although the Tide has delivered in
the big games this season they may have trouble pulling away from
an Auburn team that would love to spoil the great Alabama season.
Expect a closer game than the spread suggests. ALABAMA BY 7
Florida (-15½) FLORIDA STATE 2:30 PM
The Seminoles did not have a lot of offensive production last week
but turnovers led to a lopsided win for Florida State to stay in
contention in the ACC. FSU needs Maryland to win this week to
claim the tiebreaker and play for a BCS spot next week. Florida
State lost 45-12 last season against Florida in an embarrassing
display but in 2006 the Gators nearly had its national championship
bid taken away as Florida State has played the Gators very tough at
home. Florida has been on cruise control with seven straight wins
since the loss to Ole Miss, and that loss is the lone ATS loss on the
season for the Gators. Many are penciling in the Gators for the BCS
championship game but there are two tough games ahead and
overlooking this game would be a big mistake. The Florida State
defense can keep this game close but ultimately Florida likely pulls
away and the Gator special teams have also been a huge factor this
season producing big plays every week. FLORIDA BY 21
TENNESSEE (-5) Kentucky 5:30 PM
The Volunteers had just 243 yards of offense last week but
managed to win. It may be hard to replicate that fortune in Coach
Fulmer’s send-off game. Last season Tennessee knocked off
Kentucky to win the SEC East in a 52-50 game that endured four
overtime sessions. Injuries have hit Kentucky hard this season but
unlike the Vols the Wildcats will be in the postseason. The Wildcats
have lost outright in 23 consecutive meetings so there will be plenty
of motivation here and the Wildcats have had an extra week to
prepare for this game. Tennessee has not had much success
covering at home in recent years and after last week’s win it will be
tough to get another positive effort. KENTUCKY BY 10
CENTRAL FLORIDA (-9) Uab 12:00 PM
Central Florida was out-gained by 111 yards last week but managed
to win and the Knights are a better team than the record indicates
and has now won two in a row. UAB has covered in three of the last
four games and the Blazers average over 130 more yards per game
on offense in this match-up. The UAB pass defense has had a lot of
problems this season but UCF has one of the least efficient passing
games in the nation. Central Florida has played through a much
tougher schedule on the season and the Knights still own impressive
recent numbers at home. UAB stayed close last week by virtue of
turnovers and playing on the road to close the season will be a
challenge. Central Florida has won by fairly convincing margins in
the history of this series. CENTRAL FLORIDA BY 14
OREGON STATE (-3) Oregon 6:00 PM
The Beavers had an incredible rally to win last week and keep the
Rose Bowl dreams alive. This will be a very tough game as the state
rival Ducks are rested and set on redeeming a double-OT loss in
Eugene last season. Oregon owns a dramatically more productive
offense in this match-up but the defensive edge for Oregon State is
equally significant. The injury to OSU RB Rodgers is a concern and
the Beavers will face pressure unlike they have ever known
considering how long it has been since a postseason trip to
Pasadena. Oregon should have won the Civil War game last season
and this is a game the Ducks have been waiting for. Oregon’s
offense will be very tough to slow down and the breaks may not
keep falling the way of the Beavers. Although this is a very tough
home stadium , this rivalry game should be tight and the Ducks have
a legitimate shot at the upset. OREGON BY 3
CLEMSON (NL) South Carolina 11:00 AM
In what was supposed to be a glorious year for the Clemson
program the Tigers are not yet even bowl eligible going into the
season’s final game. Clemson has six wins but two came against
FCS teams so this will be a make or break game and likely an
important game for interim Coach Swinney who still may have a
chance at retaining the job. South Carolina should have a sour taste
after its last loss was a blowout in Gainesville and the Gamecocks
still own impressive defensive numbers on the season. Clemson is
just 2-6 in the last eight games as favorites and little should be read
into the last two wins as Duke lost multiple key players and Virginia
had four turnovers last week. South Carolina lost by two to Clemson
last season but won the last meeting in this stadium. South
Carolina’s offense has been starting to produce prior to the
nightmare game against Florida and the Gamecocks have been the
better team by far this season. SOUTH CAROLINA BY 13
USC (-29) Notre Dame 7:00 PM
After last week’s depressing loss to Syracuse Notre Dame faces a
daunting challenge this week. USC still has realistic BCS
championship hopes although they will need some help and whether
or not they win the Pac-10 title may not be relevant. The USC
defense is allowing just over eight points per game although one of
the worst games of the season for the Trojans came in the last
game. Notre Dame faces long travel and will play as a big underdog
in a series that they have struggled in. The Irish have played a weak
schedule but the defensive numbers are solid and the passing game
can produce if turnovers are avoided. There will be no holding back
from USC but the Trojans simply have not scored that much this
season. If you take out the blowouts against Washington and
Washington State, USC averages just 32 points per game which will
make it tough to cover this spread. There is some value with the
underdog here as the perception of the Irish is at an all-time low but
Notre Dame can play better than expected here. USC BY 24
HAWAII (-27½) Washington State 10:00 PM
Washington State probably wishes they picked a different year to
play the 13-game schedule but the Cougars picked up a nice victory
last week to at least take something away from a brutal year. There
is nothing positive to say about the numbers for WSU but the
Cougars have covered in three consecutive games. Hawaii can
keep its bowl hopes alive with a win this week and the Warriors have
been a pleasant surprise with a much more competitive team than
many expected given all the turnover from last season’s great team.
Hawaii is 6-1 ATS in the last seven games and the Warriors have
lost just once at home this season, a close game against San Jose
State. Even though Washington State is down this year it will be a
meaningful game for Hawaii with a chance to knock off a Pac-10
team and move to 7-5. HAWAII BY 31
Arkansas State (NL) NORTH TEXAS 1:00 PM
Arkansas State has not lived up to expectations this season after a
very strong start to the year but last week’s win over Florida Atlantic
was an impressive and dominant victory. North Texas has the worst
defensive numbers in the nation and the Mean Green has rarely
been competitive, losing by double-digits in all ten losses. Last
season this was a very close game as North Texas actually had its
most productive rushing game of the year against Arkansas State.
North Texas had a 21-0 lead last season in this match-up in
Jonesboro but Arkansas State rallied for the victory. Arkansas State
is 0-4 S/U and ATS the last four road games and after the big win
this might be a tough spot. ARKANSAS STATE BY 10
Florida Atlantic (NL) Florida International 3:00 PM
The Owls have won five of six meetings in this series and this year’s
game is at a neutral site at Dolphin Stadium. The Sun Belt has
enhanced bowl chances this season with Sun Belt teams getting the
second crack at three bowl games should certain conferences not fill
the spots so the Owls would have a good shot at a bowl game
should they win this game to become bowl eligible. Florida
International has four wins this season and the Panthers have been
a strong ATS team but this game has been a blowout loss each of
the last two years. Florida Atlantic has enjoyed strong numbers as a
favorite with covers in ten of the last 13 games so the Owls can pull
away in this rivalry game. FLORIDA ATLANTIC BY 13
RATING 5 PITTSBURGH (+1) over New England
RATING 4 BALTIMORE (-7) over Cincinnati
RATING 3 KANSAS CITY (+3) over Oakland
RATING 2 JACKSONVILLE (+3) over Houston
RATING 1 NY GIANTS (NL) over Washington
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 27, 2008
Tennessee (-11) DETROIT (44) 11:30 AM
The Titans perfect season came to an end but Tennessee is still in
command of the AFC. The Lions had another hot start last week but
Detroit can not hang on to leads and the run defense has been the worst
in the league. Many expect the Titans to bounce back and deliver a huge
win but Tennessee has shown a lot of vulnerability in recent weeks and
it is hard to envision the Titans pulling away for a convincing win in this
situation after the perfect season letdown. TITANS BY 7
DALLAS (-13) Seattle (47) 3:15 PM
Playing against good teams the last three weeks the Seahawks have
come close but have not been able to deliver wins. Dallas came up with
a great performance last week but the offense has scored 14 or fewer
points in four of the last five games. Now that Dallas is back at
“contender” status the value is going against them as they are still a
dysfunctional team that has underachieved. Seattle has only lost twice
ATS in the last six games. COWBOYS BY 10
PHILADELPHIA (NL) Arizona 7:15 PM
The Eagles made a surprising halftime move last week benching
franchise QB McNabb in a close game. Back-up Kolb did not play well in
his first meaningful action and it appears McNabb will be back in the
starting role this week. The Eagles have scored just 20 points in the last
nine quarters and the touchdown last week came on special teams.
Arizona could not prove they are an elite team yet, losing at home to the
Giants. The Cardinals will be in the postseason but this is a tough travel
spot going across the country on a short week. Philadelphia needs to
step up this week and the defense has played extremely well and will get
great pressure on the Cardinals passing game. EAGLES BY 7
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 30, 2008
NY JETS (-9) Denver (47½) 3:15 PM
The Jets have delivered back-to-back huge wins over top level teams
but New York has been much less successful in the games that they
should win easily. The Jets have historically been terrible home favorites
and Denver is a team that seems to win when it is least expected. The
Broncos face long travel but own three road wins on the season and can
bounce back after last week’s disaster. JETS BY 4
BUFFALO (-7) San Francisco (42½) 12:00 PM
The Bills turned five turnovers into a 54-point effort last week as weeks
of frustration were unleashed on the Chiefs. Buffalo is still in the playoff
mix and this will be a critical game with the following three games away
from home. The 49ers could not hang with Dallas last week as the
running game has disappeared and cross country travel to a cold
weather venue could be problematic. BILLS BY 10
TAMPA BAY (NL) New Orleans 12:00 PM
The Bucs have impressed w ith the ability to rally back from deficits but it
is a dangerous line to walk. The Saints face a short week after Monday
night and New Orleans has not had great success in this series. Tampa
Bay lost the first meeting of the season in a very tight game and this
should be a critical game for the Bucs to deliver a big win and take
command in the NFC South. The Saints may finally get RB Bush back
but the Bucs are excellent against the pass. BUCCANEERS BY 13
GREEN BAY (NL) Carolina 12:00 PM
The Panthers are struggling on the road with the last three road games
against quality teams resulting in lopsided losses. The Packers face a
tight division race coming off a Monday night game and this is a critical
game for potential tie-breakers. Carolina’s defense is not the same away
from home and the Panthers will likely struggle in their first cold weather
game of the season. The Panthers have not lost consecutive games all
season long but this might be the spot for a team that could dissolve
after a hot start as the closing schedule is brutally tough with nothing but
playoff caliber teams remaining. PACKERS BY 7
NY Giants (NL) Washington 12:00 PM
The Redskins held on for a big win last week but recent wins have not
been impressive and the Redskins are struggling to score points, with an
average of just over 15 points per game over the last six contests. The
Giants have unquestionably been the best team in the league in recent
weeks, winning with ease for the most part through a very difficult midseason
schedule. The Giants dominated the first meeting between these
teams and New York has incredible S/U and ATS success in
Washington the past two decades. GIANTS BY 14
Miami (NL) ST. LOUIS 12:00 PM
The Dolphins snapped a four-game winning streak in a game that was
much closer than the final result. The schedule ahead is still favorable
for Miami so the playoffs are definitely not out of the picture. The St.
Louis defense is in bad shape and the offense may be down to veteran
QB Green who threw four interceptions in relief last week. With no
running game and nothing to play for the Rams appear to be sunk and
Miami’s offense is capable of putting up a big number as the Dolphins
have covered in three straight road games. DOLPHINS BY 17
Baltimore (-7) CINCINNATI (36½) 12:00 PM
The Ravens offense did not have a great game last week but the scoring
chances were capitalized on, mistakes were avoided, and the defense
created big plays. Cincinnati has played respectably on defense in
recent weeks but the Bengals still own just one win on the year.
Baltimore has covered in just two of the last eight meetings in this
division series, including a narrow win earlier this year but the Bengals
can not be trusted to take care of the ball against the opportunistic
Baltimore defense that will shut down the run. RAVENS BY 13
Indianapolis (NL) CLEVELAND 12:00 PM
The Colts have climbed back into the playoff hunt with four consecutive
wins but Indianapolis has not been a strong road favorite. The QB
situation for the Browns is now unclear with Anderson coming back in
last week but the bottom line is the Browns scored only six points
against a lousy defense. The Browns have risen up to play well in some
of its biggest games as this will be a marquee match-up for a team with
a solid record in the home underdog role. COLTS BY 3
SAN DIEGO (NL) Atlanta 3:05 PM
The Falcons came up with a big division win last week but road success
has not yet occurred for this young team. The Chargers have lost four of
the last five games and at 4-7 things are looking bleak. The Chargers
defense has been marginal and the offense has not been able to
produce. The Chargers have lost both games against the NFC South
this season and the division continues to prove it may be the strongest in
the league. Atlanta can deliver the upset. FALCONS BY 3
NEW ENGLAND (-1) Pittsburgh (40) 3:15 PM
The Patriots delivered a big revenge win last week but the defense has
been a concern as Miami put up huge numbers against the Patriots.
Pittsburgh has the best run defense in the NFL and the Steelers have
had extra time to prepare for this game. Pittsburgh has not had success
in this series but they have been a good road team and a great
underdog. New England’s home field edge has been non- existent and
QB Cassel won’t have big numbers this week. STEELERS BY 10
OAKLAND (-3) Kansas City (41) 3:15 PM
The Raiders had a great performance last week but turnovers helped the
cause and the Raiders offense is still going to struggle to score. The
Kansas City defense has had many problems but last week’s lopsided
result was the result of the turnovers on offense. The Chiefs are moving
the ball and scoring points and should be the better team in this matchup
despite just one win on the year. CHIEFS BY 10
MINNESOTA (-3½) Chicago (41½) 7:15 PN
These teams combined for 89 points in the first meetings this season but
this should be a different type of game with both teams focused on
running the ball and stopping the run. Minnesota had just 226 yards of
offense last week and the Bears have shown the ability to shut down
running games. Chicago has struggled in this building however and the
Bears are facing a third consecutive week on the road. VIKINGS BY 7
MONDAY, DECEMBER 1, 2008
HOUSTON (-3) Jacksonville (48½) 7:35 PM
The Jaguars had a nightmare start last week with two early fumbles.
Jacksonville moved the ball effectively but could not make up the deficit.
Houston won last week despite scoring just 16 points but the Texans lost
to Jacksonville earlier this season and the Jaguars have actually won
three of the last four road games with two of those wins against playoff
contenders. Houston is 0-3 ATS the last three at home and the defense
can not be trusted, allowing nearly 27 points per game. JAGS BY 7
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